LSU versus Bama and why the Tigers Win

Believe who you want to believe, but do not bet against the Tigers.  I know there are a ton of people who will tell you they know BAMA will win this weekend, and I don't blame them, I'm a homer, they're a homer, wouldn't you like to be a homer, too.  Even Vegas is not sure, their line on the game is barely over the traditional 3 points for the home team. 

And while we're on the subject, sports writers, blog posters, people in general....the word is VERSUS.  From the latin, meaning "Turned Against".  You have sportscasters on local Radio and TV, commentators on NATIONAL sports netwoks, joe schmos on web forums saying 'verse' as if that means something.  vs. is the abbreviation for versus.  Rant over.

OK, here is why LSU is going to beat Alabama on Saturday November 5th. 

I have what I deem to be an overbearing amount of Alabama folks on my cigar web forum.  I like em, hell, I am an Alabama fan second when they are not playing LSU.  But I like the idea of being an underdog amongst a ton of Crimson Tide wolves.  I can't point to one or the other and say one has more obnoxious fans than the other.  But it's Bama. lol.

However, a few weeks ago, Auburn found out how LSU covers kick returns.  A freaking trebuchet of man flesh, de-cleating them in front of tens of thousands of fans.  Copy and paste that 3 more times in a row.  I had to stand up a few times and just exclaim OUCH!  It was brutal.  And that was when I knew it.  LSU wins this game.  During that Auburn game, I realized LSU just exists on a higher plane of ferocity. Bama has LSU on size and immovablility of the offesive line, ours goes up and down in their ability, week to week it seems. But they have had no trouble protecting the quarterbacks.  Establishing the run has proven a tiny bit more difficult at times, but no one would accuse the Tigers of an inability to run the football.  So I am OK with a little variablility in the face of Bama's steadiness.  And besides, we are not running the ball against their offensive line, but their defensive line.  I think LSU will do fine.  It won't be easy, but it will get done.  And on the subject, I am not convinced Bama fans should be so quick to extrapolate success with Lacey and Richardson running the football against porous defensive lines thus far as having any bearing on Saturday's contest.  LSU's defense is overstocked with manly men.  But I still view it as a push.  One side or the other will gain a slight edge, this is not where the win will be secured by any means.

 A LOT of analysts are saying that playing in Bama's home stadium is an automatic edge for them,

but in the grand scheme, I don't think their stadium is all that feared conference-wide.

Tiger Stadium is MUCH more of a factor, as is West Virginia's renowned venue where LSU has dominated unaffected.  Kentucky, Florida, Miss State, ALL are tougher places to play. I do not give that as an edge by ANY means.  People just don't fear Bryant Denney Stadium.  And LSU SEEMS to flourish under intense partisan crowds, be they hostile or sympathetic.  And our defense has a knack for quieting crowds.  Been doing it all season. 

Alabama's left tackle is a phenomenon, though, and I KNOW the Tigers must deal with him to get a good pass rush on the QB's blind side. Barrett Jones is a LARGE, SMART, STEADY left tackle, and I think the Tigers' best alternative is to rush from the opposite side, where McCarron can see it coming, and employ a robber on the left side.  But I have no fear that LSU will not find a way to McCarron.  He is going to spend a lot of time picking himself up off the turf.

Coaching is another push for me, I think Nick Saban is the smarter coach, but Les Miles is the gutsier one, and players like to put it all out there for someone who believes in them and their abilities to lead on the field.  You are already asking them to risk everything; their health, mobility and future...why not let em take a chance on a fake field goal, a fake punt, an onside kick.  Players like that kind of nerve, and they will go to the wall for a coach like that.  Nick Saban controls everything and is risk-averse.  It works.  I just think Les Miles' system works better.  YES, you get discipline issues from this philosophy that Saban doesn't get because he doesn't tolerate it.  But robots don't beat players head to head.  You'll see.

So where does the edge come from that puts LSU on top?  Two places, and that's always better than one.  Sorry Bama, but LSU is the faster team.  The Tigers are every bit as BIG, but faster and deeper.  LSU seems to have more quality TAILBACKS than Bama has stars on the whole team.  But stars are not the measure of a great team.  Our defense is tough and FAST.  Our offense is explosive and FAST. LSU is fast, FAST, FAST.  That kind of  speed covers over things.  Speed makes up for things.  Things LSU really doesn't need to make up for.  Speed....advantage LSU.

LSU has an edge in Quarterbacks.  I never thought I would say this in 2011, but it's true.  McCarron is a great player.  But he is not a lot better than Jarrett Lee.  And he is not a lot better than Jordan Jefferson.  And there's the rub.  On any given set of downs, Alabama's defense is going to come out onto the field and face uncertainty.  I would not DOUBT for a minute that LSU might trot Russel Shepard out onto the field for a play or two.  Les Miles can change QBs play to play for that matter.  I think the things LSU can do with the quarterback trump what Alabama can do, although that is mitigated somewhat by the fact that Bama's backup quarterback is more mobile than McCarron.  MOBILE and ready to play against LSU are two different things, however.  Make no mistake, Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee are both ready to play at any time in Tuscaloosa. Both have the full confidence of the head coach and the team as a whole.  The same cannot be said of Saban's top two QBs.  Saban is not the kind of coach who is going to send Phillip Sims into the ball game with A.J. McCarron standing beside him, healthy and ready to play.  He will not risk the outcome, even at home, in this particular game.  It is too close to call, and Saban is a calculating coach with a strict plan for victory.  And that plan does not include Phillip Sims alternating series.

In the end I guess it's all about one thing..............Miley Cyrus LOVES LSU!

 So suck on that Bama....

Sorry Bama fans, the game of the 21st century goes to LSU by 10 points.  No matter the outcome, wrong or right, I am going to REALLLLlllllllly enjoy this football game.  I won't be alone.